All Mocks are Wrong, but Some are Useful

Author

Nicholas Vietto

Full Description

This table presents the first-round results of the 2024 NFL Draft alongside the final 2024 NFL Mock Draft predictions from the four most popular draft analysts. Although mock drafts offer engaging content throughout the draft season, their accuracy typically declines after the top four picks.

Goal

The purpose of this table was to experiment with {gt} and {gtExtra} to create an engaging data visual

Information on Packages and Data

Data was collected and complied from NFL.com and Sharp Football.

This table was built in R using {gt} and {gtExtras}.

Data wrangling was completed using {janitor}, {readxl}, and {tidyverse}.

Load Packages and Data

Code

pacman::p_load(gt, gtExtras, janitor, tidyverse, readxl)

data <- read_excel("data.xlsx")

Data Wrangling

Code

data <- data |> 
  clean_names() |> 
  as_tibble() |> 
  arrange(actual) |> 
  mutate(across(5:9, as.numeric)) |> 
  mutate(across(everything(), ~ ifelse(is.na(.), 0, .))) |> 
  pivot_longer(cols = -c(players, actual_1, who_was_correct, mean_projection),
               names_to = 'draft',
               values_to = 'position') |>
  group_by(players, actual_1, who_was_correct, mean_projection) |> 
  summarise(positions = list(position)) |> 
  ungroup() |> 
  mutate(mean_projection = as.numeric(mean_projection)) |> 
  mutate(mean_projection_1 = mean_projection) |> 
  mutate(change_score = abs(mean_projection_1 - actual_1)) |> 
  select(players, mean_projection, actual_1, change_score, positions, who_was_correct)


color_palette <- c("#3B9AB2", "#F21A00", "#FF0000")

Table

Code

data |> 
  arrange(actual_1) |> 
  gt() |> 
  tab_header(
    title = md('**All Mocks are Wrong, but Some are Useful**'),
    subtitle = md("*The final 2024 <span style='font-family: Times New Roman;'>**NFL**</span> Mock Drafts from Daniel Jeremiah (DJ), Peter Schrager (PS), Mel Kiper (MK), Bucky Brooks (BB)*")) |> 
  tab_options(
    heading.align = "Center",
    heading.title.font.size = px(24),
    heading.background.color = "#5BBCD6") |> 
  opt_table_font(font = google_font(name = "Playfair Display")) |> 
  cols_label(
    players = 'Player Name',
    actual_1 = 'Actual Draft Position',
    change_score = 'Difference',
    who_was_correct = 'Who Predicted Correctly',
    mean_projection = 'Average Projected Draft Position',
    positions = md('Projected Position <br> (DJ, PS, MK, BB, Actual)'), 
  ) |> 
  gt_plt_sparkline(column = positions, palette = c("#FF0000", "#00A08A", "#F2AD00", "#F98400", "#5BBCD6"))|> 
  gt_color_rows(
    columns = c(actual_1, mean_projection),
    domain = c(0, 100),
    palette = color_palette) |> 
  opt_stylize(style = 6) |> 
  gt_plt_bar_pct(change_score, fill="#5BBCD6", scaled = FALSE) |> 
  cols_align(align = "center", columns = c(mean_projection, actual_1, change_score)) |> 
  tab_source_note(source_note = ("Data: NFL.com and Sharp Football | Table created by Nicholas Vietto for the 2024 Posit Table Contest"))

All Mocks are Wrong, but Some are Useful
The final 2024 NFL* Mock Drafts from Daniel Jeremiah (DJ), Peter Schrager (PS), Mel Kiper (MK), Bucky Brooks (BB)*
Player Name	Average Projected Draft Position	Actual Draft Position	Difference	Projected Position (DJ, PS, MK, BB, Actual)	Who Predicted Correctly
Caleb Williams	1	1			All
Jayden Daniels	2	2			All
Drake Maye	3	3			All
Marvin Harrison Jr.	4	4			All
Joe Alt	7	5			Bucky Brooks
Malik Nabers	6	6			All
J.C. Lathan	8	7			None
Michael Penix Jr.	13	8			None
Rome Odunze	9	9			Peter Schrager, Mel Kiper, Bucky Brooks
JJ McCarthy	8	10			None
Olumuyiwa Fashanu	12	11			None
Bo Nix	17	12			Peter Schrager
Brock Bowers	11	13			None
Taliese Fuaga	12	14			None
Laiatu Latu	24	15			None
Byron Murphy	14	16			None
Dallas Turner	10	17			None
Amarius Mims	20	18			None
Jared Verse	20	19			None
Troy Fautanu	17	20			None
Demeioun 'Chop' Robinson	26	21			None
Quinyon Mitchell	16	22			None
Brain Thomas Jr.	23	23			None
Terrion Arnold	16	24			None
Jordan Morgan	31	25			None
Graham Barton	23	26			Peter Schrager
Darius Robinson	27	27			Peter Schrager, Mel Kiper, Bucky Brooks
Xavier Worthy	23	28			None
Tyler Guyton	22	29			None
Nate Wiggins	24	30			Daniel Jeremiah
Ricky Pearsall	0	31			None
Xavier Legette	32	32			Peter Schrager, Mel Kiper
Data: NFL.com and Sharp Football \| Table created by Nicholas Vietto for the 2024 Posit Table Contest